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Dems hold advantage in CD 1 race

By CYNDY COLE
Sun Staff Reporter
Sunday, June 08, 2008

Ten candidates are vying for the rural congressional seat being vacated by indicted three-term Republican Rep. Rick Renzi, and the wide-open spot is drawing national attention.

It's uncertain whether Republicans will be able to hold onto this district, where registered Democrats and independents outnumber GOP voters nearly 2 to 1. "It's a little early to tell, but it's really leaning toward the Dems," said Fred Solop, pollster and director of Northern Arizona University's Social Research Laboratory. "This seems to be a year for the Democrats. Nationally, the Democrats are enjoying a wave of enthusiasm and participation. We've seen record turnouts in primary elections."

On the positive side for the Republicans,, he said the district is socially conservative and includes Democrats who sometimes vote for Republicans and who don't reliably show up to vote.

On the positive side for the Democrats: The top fundraiser among the candidates, Ann Kirkpatrick, has campaigned and held state office before and is accumulating a long list endorsements.

The race has generated more national interest than regional attention, but it will not be long before Flagstaff and northern Arizona are awash in campaign advertising, Solop said.

"This is listed as one of the most important seats in the country," he said.

But most of the candidates are not well-known and have not previously sought office.

THE PRIMARY RACES

Nine candidates are headed to the Sept. 2 primary elections.

One more, an independent from the Village of Oak Creek named Brent Maupin, is bound directly for the Nov. 4 general election.

A former state lawmaker, Kirkpatrick has raised the most money among all candidates and appears to be the Democrats' frontrunner, according to Solop as well as Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

She was in Flagstaff on Thursday to announce an endorsement from the League of Conservation Voters, where she pledged to repeal tax subsidies for oil companies and redirect them to sustainable energy production in Arizona.

Ending the war in Iraq as quickly as possible and improving education by ensuring smaller class sizes are other planks in Kirkpatrick's platform.

Democrat Howard Shanker, who is an attorney like Kirkpatrick, has seen local support from Flagstaff environmentalists and has accrued a number of endorsements from the Navajo Nation.

Shanker is currently representing tribes that oppose snowmaking at Arizona Snowbowl.

Former broadcast journalist Mary Kim Titla and Jeffrey Brown, a former air industry employee who advocates for gay rights, are also in the race.

Sydney Hay, president of the Arizona Mining Association and a Reagan conservative, is dubbed the current leader among Republicans by Solop and Sabato.

Protecting gun owners' rights, limiting marriage to heterosexual couples, abolishing income taxes and curtailing earmarks are parts of her platform.

The Arizona Democratic Party released a statement attacking Hay, saying she was the party's 10th choice after a number of other Republicans considered the position and chose not to run.

This is the second campaign for this seat by Hay, who also ran in the 2002 GOP primary.

That previous bid will be advantageous in boosting name recognition, Solop said.

Tucson Electric Power administrator Tom Hansen, previous state legislative candidate and entrepreneur Preston Korn, retired minister Barry Hall and newcomer Sandra Livingstone are also in the race.

PARTY PLANS

Education, health care and especially the economy are the top issues in this district, Solop said, and whether the economy rebounds will be important in this race.

Leading up to the November general election, Democrats will frequently mention Renzi's felony charges, said Coconino County Democratic Party chair Harriet Young.

"It feeds right into the big story, the macro story, of the cronyism, the corruption," she said, referring national Republican scandals that polls indicated helped the party lose control of the U.S. House and Senate in 2006.

It will, indeed, be very bad for whichever Republican candidate wins the primary if Renzi's trial begins as scheduled in October, Solop said.

The Republicans have a strong field, said Coconino County Republican Party chair John Echols.

"The GOP nominee from the First District in Arizona will defeat whichever Democrat comes out of the primary," he said. "The voters of (the First Congressional District) know what they want, and that is strong, steady leadership for the district."

As for how to handle the allegations of corruption?

"There's corruption on both sides of the aisle," Echols said, "and I think it's pretty hoity-toity to assume that just because they're Democrats they're going to do any better. All people have personal failings regardless of what party they're affiliated with."

Cyndy Cole can be reached at 913-8607 or at ccole@azdailysun.com.

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